Why I Think Democrats Win Big Tonight And Where They Could Lose

by | November 3, 2026

“Prediction markets have El-Sayed as a big favourite in Michigan, but polls show a near dead heat — and with Senate control potentially on the line, this could be the upset that defines the night.”

My 2026 midterm predictions, recorded before the polls close.

I’m not a hardcore Republican. I’m hardcore anti-Democrat. Here’s why, and here’s where I think tonight goes.

My calls:

Senate: 52 D – 48 R

House: about 235 Democratic seats

Texas: Talarico over Paxton (the GOP should have run Cornyn)

Upsets to watch: Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers) and Alaska (Peltola and the second Dan Sullivan)

Prediction markets have El-Sayed as a big favourite in Michigan, but polls show a near dead heat. I think it’s far closer than the markets say.

Plus: the Iran war and gas prices, D.C. and Puerto Rico statehood, court packing, and why 2028 may be the last stopgap.

What are YOUR predictions? Drop them in the comments and we’ll see who was right.

#Midterms2026 #ElectionDay #MidtermPredictions #Senate #Michigan #Texas #Alaska #Democrats #Republicans #Election2026

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